Beijing [China], August 3: Moody's analysis company, belonging to Moody's Investment Services Group, one of the three most prestigious financial credit rating agencies in the world, has just updated its report on the Asia-Pacific economy.
Impact from China
According to the above report, China's first half economic results published in July caused concern for many countries, as China's economy grew slowly. Specifically, China's GDP in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 6.3% over the same period last year. However, in the second quarter of 2022, China still applied many strict blockade measures under the Zero-Covid policy, so the economy at that time grew very slowly. Therefore, despite an increase of 6.3% over the same period last year, China's economy in the second quarter only increased by 0.8% compared to the first quarter. Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2023, it increased by 2.2%. compared to the previous quarter.
In the first half of 2023, the economy faced many difficulties such as stagnating consumption, the real estate market was still struggling and investment decreased. Not only that, the unemployment rate of 16-24 year olds increased from 20.8% in May to 21.3% in June.
China's slow economic growth and reduced consumption have seriously affected countries in the region with export-dependent economies. In the first half of 2023, a number of Southeast Asian countries have reduced their export turnover to China by 8 - 25% compared to the same period in 2022. In addition, the economy has also stagnated in many developed countries, which are all developed countries. key export market of many Asia-Pacific economies. In addition, supply chain disruptions due to the pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine and a strict lockdown in China in 2022 have resulted in commodity exporters suffering from highly volatile prices throughout the year. many months.
Vietnam is one of the bright spots
According to the above report, analysis firm Moody's expects China's policymakers to step up stimulus measures, in the context that the country's economy is facing many challenges.
Meanwhile, in the last months of this year, the situation of the remaining economies in the region is not expected to change significantly compared to the past months. The fastest growth rates in the region will continue to be recorded in Vietnam, the Philippines , Indonesia and India. These are economies with strong labor markets, supportive fiscal policies focused on improving infrastructure, education and health care, and recovery in consumer demand.
Going further, 2024 is expected to grow stronger than 2023, as global trade accelerates thanks to the recovery of advanced economies and an improvement in the economic situation in China. The economies of Vietnam, Singapore and Thailand will accelerate next year. In particular, Singapore's small but open economy will grow strongly. Thailand's tourism-based economy, supported by the automotive and electronics industries, will benefit from the return of tourists and global demand for goods. Vietnam is once again attracting foreign direct investment from across the region and this will be evident in the real economy next year.
With many imbalances in the economy, China's outlook remains uncertain. However, the improving global economic outlook will help the Asia-Pacific region continue to grow next year.
Source: ThanhNien Newspaper